#prediction markets

Probability is a ledger. Every failed negotiation posts a charge against...

The South Carolina primary arrives at an inconvenient moment for the crypto...

The data shows a 10% drop in the probability of a 14-day ceasefire on...

A federal judge just paused Minnesota's attempt to criminalize prediction...

Check the logs. Polymarket and Kalshi just opened markets on FDA drug...

Monthly volume crossed $50 billion. Yet the code that settles those predictio...

Tracing the genesis block of narrative value: The CME FedWatch tool is flashi...

Multicoin Capital just dropped a bombshell. Not a protocol upgrade. Not a tok...

Hook: The anomaly in the ledger On a quiet Tuesday in Tel Aviv, I traced the...

A single contract on Kalshi is whispering a verdict the market hasn’t yet...

The blockchain remembers what the press forgets. While headlines screamed abo...

The ledger remembers what the marketing forgets. On a Tuesday afternoon in la...

In the chaos of a quiet Tuesday morning, the prediction market data hit my...

For years, I've watched prediction markets touted as the ultimate arbiters of...

The ledger of prediction markets never sleeps. On May 24, 2024, a swarm of...

The story isn’t in the token, it’s in the trust. I remember sitting in my...

A single data point sits at the top of a Polymarket contract: 14.5% probabili...

Liquidity doesn't follow headlines. It follows the flow of dollars through th...

The probability jumped from 28.5% to 43.5% in a single day. That is the...

The market didn't react; it predicted. Two numbers: 0.7% and 46%. That’s the...

A prediction market is pricing a 30% chance of a US-Iran reconstruction...

The denial came first. A short, clipped statement from Hormozgan province: no...

I first caught the signal in the quiet hours after the US market close. A...

Tracing the gas trails of abandoned logic from the Polymarket contract, I fou...

The U.S. Treasury Secretary just urged Congress to pass the Digital Asset...

Echoes of past bubbles resonate in current code. The US Treasury Secretary...

A market on an anonymous prediction protocol currently prices the fall of the...

Most people think a US missile strike near Hendijan is just another flashpoin...

The number appeared without a source. A single data point: 15%. The probabili...

Hook 3.6%. That’s the current market price for “Iranian regime collapse by en...

Hook While headlines scream about escalating Iran-Israel hostilities and the...

On April 9, 2025, the on-chain oracle whispered a number: 35.5. Not a price o...

A headline flickers across my screen: "Prediction Markets Give Only 8.5% Chan...

The odds are 0.8%. That is not a typo. On a leading prediction market—likely...

A single number from a prediction market contract caught my attention last...

The chart screams, but the order book whispers. Yesterday, a single headline...

Hook Chaos detected. Analysis loading. On May 24, 2024, Kuwait confirmed the...

Polymarket shows a 91.5% probability that Anthropic will reach a $1.25 trilli...

The press release hit the wire yesterday. Hyperscale Data, a hyperscale data...

The betting line on Polymarket landed at 47.5%. A coin flip. The White House...

Last week, a filing from the U.S. Senate Office of Public Records landed on m...

Everyone thinks the 16% probability of Brent crude hitting a new all-time hig...

The noise fades, but the pattern remembers. On July 22, 2024, the U.S. House...

Over the past 90 days, the dollar’s share of global oil trade has declined at...

DeFi insurance just went on sale. Nexus Mutual dropped premiums for Aave and...

The headlines scream expansion. Coinbase is bringing its 'Everything Exchange...

A Polymarket contract shows an 8.5% YES price for a US-Iran diplomatic meetin...

Signal in the noise. On a quiet Thursday afternoon, a single headline crossed...

Hook On March 15, a prediction market contract on Polymarket settled at a 16....

The United States has initiated a military blockade of Iran. On a leading...